It is widely assumed that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31st January 2020.
My view is that it is impossible for the United Kingdom lawfully to leave the European Union before, as of today's date, 21st January 2021.
In other words as a matter of Public International Law, European Union Law and United Kingdom Law the UK must continue as a Member State of the European Union for at least another year.
On 7th January 2020 and 16th January 2020 I wrote to the Treasury Solicitor and Advocate General for Scotland in "Letters Before Claim" setting out the legal reasoning that leads me to conclude that the United Kingdom cannot lawfully leave the European Union for at least a year.
A "Letter Before Claim" is the first step towards Judicial Review.
The formal response from the Government Legal Department is due by 17.00 on Thursday 23rd January 2020.
The Government Legal Department lawyer dealing with the matter is Daniel Emery.
Copies of the Letters Before Claim are here:
Letter Before Claim of 7th January 2020
and here:
Letter Before Claim of 16th January 2020
If the United Kingdom attempts to leave the European Union on 31st January 2020, that will cause legal uncertainty and chaos, which I term 'Mayhem Brexit'.
Tuesday 21 January 2020
Sunday 24 November 2019
Brexit Briefing Paper No.15: Brexit (in 2020) is doomed
In August 2018 I published Briefing Paper No.1 entitled "Brexit (in 2019) is doomed".
Happily, that prediction proved correct.
Now I want to make a further prediction - that UKExit ("Brexit") won't happen in 2020!
Briefing Paper No.15 in the "Brexit is doomed" series is entitled "Brexit (in 2020) is doomed".
A copy of the "Brexit (in 2020) is doomed" Briefing Paper can be downloaded from here:
"Brexit (in 2020) is doomed"
On 21st November 2019 I wrote to the UK Government and to the European Union drawing attention to the urgent need to extend the negotiation period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union.
Links to copies of those letters are available on "The Brexit Farce" blog here:
The Brexit Farce: Letters of 21st November 2019 to the UK Government and EU institutions
Happily, that prediction proved correct.
Now I want to make a further prediction - that UKExit ("Brexit") won't happen in 2020!
Briefing Paper No.15 in the "Brexit is doomed" series is entitled "Brexit (in 2020) is doomed".
A copy of the "Brexit (in 2020) is doomed" Briefing Paper can be downloaded from here:
"Brexit (in 2020) is doomed"
On 21st November 2019 I wrote to the UK Government and to the European Union drawing attention to the urgent need to extend the negotiation period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union.
Links to copies of those letters are available on "The Brexit Farce" blog here:
The Brexit Farce: Letters of 21st November 2019 to the UK Government and EU institutions
Monday 29 October 2018
Brexit Briefing Paper No.5: Nick Boles MP's so-called "Better Brexit" proposal is a dead-end
A few weeks ago Nick Boles MP put forward a proposal that asserted that the United Kingdom had a "treaty right" to remain a member of the European Economic Area.
In my view that proposal by Nick Boles is, legally speaking, a dead-end.
Brexit Briefing Paper No.5 which can be accessed
Brexit Briefing Paper No.5: Nick Boles MP's so-called "Better Brexit" proposal is a dead-end
sets out a line of legal argument which demonstrates that Mr. Boles' proposal is a dead-end.
In my view that proposal by Nick Boles is, legally speaking, a dead-end.
Brexit Briefing Paper No.5 which can be accessed
Brexit Briefing Paper No.5: Nick Boles MP's so-called "Better Brexit" proposal is a dead-end
sets out a line of legal argument which demonstrates that Mr. Boles' proposal is a dead-end.
Sunday 12 August 2018
Brexit Briefing Paper No.3: "The June 2016 Referendum franchise was rigged. The Referendum result should be rejected."
Serious questions have been raised over the last several weeks about the integrity (or lack of it) of the process of the June 2016 Referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union.
Those questions are important but are not the only cause of concern about the June 2016 Referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union.
In Brexit Briefing Paper No.3, entitled "The June 2016 Referendum franchise was rigged. The Referendum result should be rejected." I focus on the even more fundamental issue of the franchise of the Referendum.
The rigged franchise in the June 2016 Referendum shows that its result should be rejected.
Whatever the result of inquiries into the the Referendum campaigns in favour of Leave, the fundamental unfairness and unlawfulness of the Referendum franchise shows that the result is worthless.
It is an outrage against the principles of democracy that a Referendum based on a rigged franchise has been mis-used by unscrupulous politicians to achieve an aim that will be enormously damaging to the United Kingdom.
I am not saying that there isn't a significant number of people who might, in the abstract, prefer that the UK wasn't a member of the European Union.
What I am saying is that the result of the June 2016 Referendum which we're told represented the "will of the British people" did no such thing.
The franchise was rigged.
Up to 5 million UK citizens who lived abroad were denied the right to vote in a Referendum that risks removing their EU citizenship and other EU-derived rights.
Around 1 million Commonwealth citizens were allowed a vote despite their having no proper basis on which to have a vote to remove the rights of UK citizens, including the EU citizenship rights of those UK citizens.
The result of the June 2016 Referendum should be rejected.
A copy of the Brexit Briefing Paper may be downloaded from
"The June 2016 Referendum franchise was rigged. The Referendum result should be rejected."
Those questions are important but are not the only cause of concern about the June 2016 Referendum on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union.
In Brexit Briefing Paper No.3, entitled "The June 2016 Referendum franchise was rigged. The Referendum result should be rejected." I focus on the even more fundamental issue of the franchise of the Referendum.
The rigged franchise in the June 2016 Referendum shows that its result should be rejected.
Whatever the result of inquiries into the the Referendum campaigns in favour of Leave, the fundamental unfairness and unlawfulness of the Referendum franchise shows that the result is worthless.
It is an outrage against the principles of democracy that a Referendum based on a rigged franchise has been mis-used by unscrupulous politicians to achieve an aim that will be enormously damaging to the United Kingdom.
I am not saying that there isn't a significant number of people who might, in the abstract, prefer that the UK wasn't a member of the European Union.
What I am saying is that the result of the June 2016 Referendum which we're told represented the "will of the British people" did no such thing.
The franchise was rigged.
Up to 5 million UK citizens who lived abroad were denied the right to vote in a Referendum that risks removing their EU citizenship and other EU-derived rights.
Around 1 million Commonwealth citizens were allowed a vote despite their having no proper basis on which to have a vote to remove the rights of UK citizens, including the EU citizenship rights of those UK citizens.
The result of the June 2016 Referendum should be rejected.
A copy of the Brexit Briefing Paper may be downloaded from
"The June 2016 Referendum franchise was rigged. The Referendum result should be rejected."
Wednesday 1 August 2018
Brexit Briefing Paper No.1: Brexit (in 2019) is doomed
An updated version of Brexit Briefing Paper No.1, "Brexit (in 2019) is doomed" is now available.
In the paper I set out why I believe that there is an unrecognised risk of a Type 2 "No Deal" Brexit (a term explained in the paper) at the end of March 2019.
The sensible ways to attempt to avoid the dangerous effects of that "No Deal" Brexit are for the Prime Minister to seek to extend the Article 50 TEU negotiation period or to cancel Brexit.
Brexit Briefing Paper No.1 can be downloaded from here:
Brexit Briefing Paper No.1: Brexit (in 2019) is doomed
Brexit in 2019 is, in my opinion, doomed.
Brexit, however, has yet to be killed off.
In the paper I set out why I believe that there is an unrecognised risk of a Type 2 "No Deal" Brexit (a term explained in the paper) at the end of March 2019.
The sensible ways to attempt to avoid the dangerous effects of that "No Deal" Brexit are for the Prime Minister to seek to extend the Article 50 TEU negotiation period or to cancel Brexit.
Brexit Briefing Paper No.1 can be downloaded from here:
Brexit Briefing Paper No.1: Brexit (in 2019) is doomed
Brexit in 2019 is, in my opinion, doomed.
Brexit, however, has yet to be killed off.
Tuesday 24 July 2018
Brexit Briefing Paper 4: A "No Deal" Brexit is a National Emergency
In the last few days increasing media attention has focussed on the possible dangers of a "No Deal" Brexit.
I view that as a good thing.
It focusses attention on what I believe to be a National Emergency which I expect to happen on 29th March 2019.
See, for example, my Written Evidence last month to the Transport Select Committee's "Freight and Brexit" Inquiry:
Written evidence submitted by Dr Andrew Watt (FAB0033)
I have now written a more detailed description of the dangers I see in a "No Deal" Brexit scenario.
Brexit Briefing Paper Number 4 is available for download here:
Brexit Briefing Paper 4: A "No Deal" Brexit is a National Emergency
If you are a concerned UK citizen then take time to email your MP, to phone him/her or to arrange to meet him/her.
MPs need to be educated about the risks of a "No Deal" Brexit. If they fully understand what it is at stake for the future of the country, surely they will put a stop to the Brexit Madness?
Surely?
The complexity of the issues involved in a "No Deal" Brexit is frightening.
Feedback on the Brexit Briefing Paper would be very welcome.
I don't pretend to know all that is relevant. Input from others with particular areas of specialist knowledge would help to improve future versions.
As always, you can feedback by email to killbrexitnow@gmail.com
I view that as a good thing.
It focusses attention on what I believe to be a National Emergency which I expect to happen on 29th March 2019.
See, for example, my Written Evidence last month to the Transport Select Committee's "Freight and Brexit" Inquiry:
Written evidence submitted by Dr Andrew Watt (FAB0033)
I have now written a more detailed description of the dangers I see in a "No Deal" Brexit scenario.
Brexit Briefing Paper Number 4 is available for download here:
Brexit Briefing Paper 4: A "No Deal" Brexit is a National Emergency
If you are a concerned UK citizen then take time to email your MP, to phone him/her or to arrange to meet him/her.
MPs need to be educated about the risks of a "No Deal" Brexit. If they fully understand what it is at stake for the future of the country, surely they will put a stop to the Brexit Madness?
Surely?
The complexity of the issues involved in a "No Deal" Brexit is frightening.
Feedback on the Brexit Briefing Paper would be very welcome.
I don't pretend to know all that is relevant. Input from others with particular areas of specialist knowledge would help to improve future versions.
As always, you can feedback by email to killbrexitnow@gmail.com
Saturday 31 March 2018
Brexit is doomed - Letter to Michel Barnier raising serious legal concerns about the draft Withdrawal Agreement of 19th March 2018
The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union provides a mechanism for the European Commission, Member States or the European Parliament to refer a draft agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union for the Court's opinion as to its legality (or not).
In my view the draft UKExit Withdrawal Agreement of 19th March 2018 which was confirmed by the European Council on 23rd March 2018 is unlawful in several material respects.
Accordingly, I have written a letter to Michel Barnier asking that he refers the question of the legality of the draft Withdrawal Agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union for its opinion.
The letter is long (11 pages) and attempts to summarise complex questions of European Union Law and World Trade Organisation Law which cause me to believe that the draft Withdrawal Agreement is fundamentally misconceived.
It is not a light read but I believe that the issues which I raise in the letter have the potential to demonstrate that Brexit is doomed.
The letter may be accessed here:
Letter of 30th March 2018 to Michel Barnier asking for urgent Article 218(11)TFEU referral to the CJEU
The letter may be freely distributed to others interested in the complexities of Brexit.
As indicated in the letter to Mr. Barnier, I anticipate writing to the Prime Minister on this matter and asking her to inform the EU27 that the UK no longer wishes to leave the European Union.
In my view the draft UKExit Withdrawal Agreement of 19th March 2018 which was confirmed by the European Council on 23rd March 2018 is unlawful in several material respects.
Accordingly, I have written a letter to Michel Barnier asking that he refers the question of the legality of the draft Withdrawal Agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union for its opinion.
The letter is long (11 pages) and attempts to summarise complex questions of European Union Law and World Trade Organisation Law which cause me to believe that the draft Withdrawal Agreement is fundamentally misconceived.
It is not a light read but I believe that the issues which I raise in the letter have the potential to demonstrate that Brexit is doomed.
The letter may be accessed here:
Letter of 30th March 2018 to Michel Barnier asking for urgent Article 218(11)TFEU referral to the CJEU
The letter may be freely distributed to others interested in the complexities of Brexit.
As indicated in the letter to Mr. Barnier, I anticipate writing to the Prime Minister on this matter and asking her to inform the EU27 that the UK no longer wishes to leave the European Union.
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