Brexit is doomed! The UK will NOT leave the European Union in March 2019

Yesterday, in the House of Commons Theresa May made a statement about the supposed progress towards Brexit.

Theresa May is lying when she tells the public that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union in March 2019.

It's not going to happen!

The UK will NOT leave the European Union in March 2019.

 The ongoing Article 50 negotiations have three possible endpoints:

• No Withdrawal Agreement
• A Withdrawal Agreement which includes a "transition period"
• A Withdrawal Agreement which does not include a "transition period".

 Each of those possible endpoints from the Article 50 negotiations is a dead-end.

Leaving the European Union with no Withdrawal Agreement will result in legal chaos and, as a result, there will be widespread disruption including of road and air transport to and from the United Kingdom.

No sane Prime Minister could proceed on the basis of no Withdrawal Agreement, although it is technically possible in European Union Law, if you assume that the March 2017 notification was founded on a lawful Article 50 decision.

The present Article 50 negotations are directed towards a Withdrawal Agreement which includes a "transition period".

The draft Withdrawal Agreement of 19th March 2018 includes a section specifically on a "transition period" as well as multiple references elsewhere in the draft to that "transition period".

The Prime Minister views that agreement as "progress". I view it as a dead-end.

An Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement which includes a "transition period" is wide open to legal challenge since the European Council (acting as the EU27) does not have "competence" to negotiate or conclude an agreement with a third country.

I expect the "transition period" to be removed from later versions of the draft Withdrawal Agreement since it is not legally possible for the European Union (acting as the EU27) to conclude such an agreement.

Since the EU27 cannot lawfully conclude a Withdrawal Agreement which includes a "transition period" that too is a dead-end.

What of the only remaining option - a Withdrawal Agreement which contains no "transition period" ? That is legally possible but practically is almost as bad as having no Withdrawal Agreement.

There is nowhere near enough time to allow negotiation of the necessary detailed new arrangements nor time to allow a suitably long "preparation period".

A Withdrawal Agreement with no "transition period" is also a dead-end and a recipe for legal chaos if the United Kingdom seeks to exit the European Union in March 2019.

Two options are available to a sane Prime Minister:

1. Ask the European Union for an extension of the 2 year negotation period. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union allows such an extension but only if the UK and ALL 27 of the other European Union Member States agree.
2. Notify the European Union that the United Kingdom no longer wishes to leave the European Union.

Both sane options mean that the United Kingdom will not leave the European Union in March 2019.

Asking for an extension of the negotiation period only postpones the inevitable in my view.

At some point the United Kingdom Prime Minister will have to notify the European Union that the United Kingdom has decided not to leave the European Union.

Given the persistent dishonesty and stubbornness which Theresa May has already shown in the Brexit saga the request for an extension or the withdrawal of the decision to leave may be very much at the eleventh hour and may very well take place in a fevered political context.

Brexit is doomed! But don't expect a smooth ride.